Why the Civil GOP Debate was Important
I was glad to finally see some serious questions and fewer of the gotcha questions, something that the Democrats have gotten from moderators for months and yet it often appears as if the moderators want the GOP side to be a circus (and know it will turn into one, too). It’s made for a spectacle but now everyone is in freakout mode (and they should be).
There were, of course, some whoppers, like silly Ted Cruz saying the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act caused the Great Depression … I just about lost my mind with that one.
The Great Depression started in 1929, due to the Stock Market crash. Smoot-Hawley was approved in 1930. It was implemented the next year. It RAISED badly needed revenue to the federal coffers to help feed millions who were wiped out. Facts, you dope … stop listening to the economists and read some history … Smoot-Hawley didn’t even lengthen the Great Depression; it was a mixed bag.
In Alfred Eckes book, “Opening America’s Market,” published in 1995, the foremost and most thorough view of trade and tariff history in America – he ran the International Trade Commission under Reagan, BTW – he found that, in fact, Smoot-Hawley did exactly what it was supposed to do, which was raise money instantly, and that the Great Depression was neither harmed nor helped by the tariffs.
Similar to the fact that two rounds of $1,600 stimulus checks to a family of four in 2008-2009 wasn’t enough to help stabilize the economy – but, say, $10,000 checks would have been, since it would have allowed people to get a fresh start by paying off a major debt – the reverberations of the Stock Market crash were so wide and deep, ingrained in every fabric of the economy at the time, including the little people who were conned into thinking they would get rich if they borrowed and played (sound familiar?), that the billion or two raised by the tariffs just wasn’t enough.
There were actually numerous growth spurts and contractions between 1929 and 1946 (which is why I and others have been warning, for years, that the 2007 Great Recession still isn’t really over for most people and won’t be any time soon…) Even the “great success” of WPA didn’t pull the country out of the doldrums. It was only when we started quietly building up the war machine before Pearl Harbor, the somewhat, dare I say, collectivist nature, for lack of a better word, of fighting that common enemy, and the sacrifices everyone made to live with less to get the fascists, that things started to turn around.
But I digress … Here’s why the civil debate was important – Trump appears to be headed for the nomination and no one can stop him. The key now will be what do the Republicans do to win.
From my back of the envelope look at the numbers, assuming the trajectory, none of the non-Trump candidates will be able to cobble together a coalition to keep Trump from the nomination; but it looks like Trump will be just shy of the number he needs. The SuperPAC ads and the media onslaught of every little hangnail the guy does, says, or has (sans that sucker punch thing or the comment afterward that the protester might get killed next time, which is dangerous) are wearing down the support and the campaign appears to see this (they just made a $20 million ad buy apparently in six upcoming states).
A candidate needs 1,237 to win the GOP nomination. Trump has 459 – 37 percent – with massive 10 to 20 point polling leads in many of the leftover winner-take-all states. He would also get Carson’s 8 delegates after the endorsement today. Trump keeps saying he wants a one-on-one with Cruz. But, ideally, the four-way race puts him in a better position to win. Cruz has 360 delegates – or 29 percent, not that far behind – but he is often running in second or third, way behind Trump, in future states. I’m still kinda surprised that Rubio and Cruz haven’t sat down yet to chat …
If I were advising the campaign – I’m not – I would offer John Kasich the VP. He will take it. Then, in September-ish, I would have the campaign unveil a “coalition” government – Christie as AG, Carson as surgeon general, that kinda thing – in an effort to hold onto the red states and put states like NJ in play (half of NJ loves Christie; half wants him gone; both sides win). Like I’ve said previously, the campaign is going to come down to 300,000 to 400,000 votes in 3-5 states but if there is even a hint of some sway in traditionally blue states like NY, NJ, and the Clinton campaign has to pivot at all, with org and resources, that will be enough for Trump/Kasich to battle where they need to win.
Trump has coasted on the fumes of anger and given people enough for them to understand what kind of president he would be with almost no specifics. The understandable fury of the masses has been enough to this point. However, to get the other 10 percent Trump needs to start running the rest of the table for the winner-take-alls, he needed to do exactly what he did last night. He is getting bombarded from all sides because many on the Republican team have a lot to lose if he is elected (yes, he brought this on).
The billionaires like Carl Icahn don’t care; they are old, worth more money that numerous generations could never blow through even with the worst coke habit. However, the K Street crowd, they are in the middle tier and want to be bigger millionaires than they are even if it means putting po white folk to the curb because it’s better to do business in Brazil for 25 cents an hour than pay $7.25 (never mind $15!). They see the writing on the wall, assuming Trump does what he says he will do. Enough already – of the economic traitors destroying the workers of America – Trump, and to a lesser extent, Sanders, bring this on.
