Prediction: Trump, Sanders will win Iowa
I wrote this on a Facebook thread this morning and figured it was worth a quick post. I’m going to be busy for the next few days but here are some thoughts about Iowa. Let’s see how I do tonight:
Predictions:
For the Dems: Sanders over Clinton by 8%-ish. I’m going to suspect that when O’Malley’s people don’t get their 15% anywhere, they would fold into the Sanders camp more than the Clinton camp.
For the GOP: Trump over Cruz by 3-5%-ish. Rubio will be third, 10%+ down. I don’t think Ron Paul’s late visit for his son will help catapult him into third but he’ll just miss and come in a strong fourth.
There was some discussion online about Trump’s rise and potential to run the table. Frankly, I never doubted that Trump would get close to winning. I knew it after I interviewed him before he announced and said so on Facebook. He has built the same type of campaign that Reagan built to win, galvanizing all kinds of people who never vote for Republicans, ever. He is the only Republican candidate speaking about working-class issues, something Republicans rarely speak about (except tax breaks which do sometimes create jobs but sometimes don’t). He is the only Republican that has spoken about preserving Social Security for those of us who paid in and the only one who has discussed the real root cause of income and wealth inequality, which is globalization. Trump has struck at the core of a lot of things that people have been angry about and have been for a while the same way Sanders has, too (trade, political corruption, etc.).
But most joyfully, no matter what happens in November, tonight and Feb. 9 may be the only nights that all of us who are sick and tired of lobbyists and lawyers and special interests setting public policy and running the country into the ground can cherish … they are FREAKING OUT right now in both Iowa and Washington, D.C. at the thought of a Sanders vs. Trump race. Either way, they lose their graft and troughs and the American people win. That is worth the price of admission right now knowing that those people are scared.
Whether Trump wins tonight or not, I don’t think it will be over by South Carolina though, as some have suggested. Jeb still thinks he is going to be the nominee and still has money to burn; Cruz is polling well in the Super Tuesday states and has built a firewall of sorts in the South; Rubio has quit the Senate and has nothing left to lose. The only way to stop Trump – if they can stop Trump – is to pick one candidate to get behind very soon and drop out, like Perry and Walker did months ago.
None of the other Republicans will do that though because running for president never really is about the American people or what’s best or just for the future; it’s about what’s best for themselves and their handlers and interests.
